Testing genuine savings as a forward-looking indicator of future well-being over the (very) long-run

Genuine Savings (GS) have been much used in recent years as an indicator of a country's sustainability. According to some theorists (e.g. Arrow et al., 2012), under certain conditions a country with a positive level of GS should experience non-declining future utility, given the assumption of unlimited substitutability among all forms of capital (sometimes called “weak” sustainability). This paper reports the first very long-run tests of GS (also called comprehensive investment or adjusted net savings) as a forward-looking indicator of future well-being. We assemble data for British capital back to 1765, and construct several net investment measures which are used as indicators of two alternative measures of future well-being: consumption per capita and real wages. An allowance for a “value of time” due to exogenous technological progress is included in some GS measures, and we demonstrate the importance of this measure and the choice of discount rate over the very long-run. On the whole, our results do not reject the postulated relationship between GS and future well-being, and show GS can be a forward looking indicator of future well-being for periods of up to 100 years.     

New insights into the benefits of flood warnings: Results from a household survey in England and Wales

The flood defence agency in England and Wales has been pursuing a programme of flood warning system enhancement, engaging householders at risk in improving their warning responses. The immediate aim of this paper is to test and revise a model of economic benefits of warnings, but the survey data also generate insights into the constraints acting upon flood warning responses. Damage saving is less than previously anticipated: warning reliability and householder availability problems limit savings. Warnings are less likely to be received by those in lower social grades, and flood warning lead time is a factor in avoiding damage. The survey data indicate the complexities involved in improving flood warning response, and provide policy pointers.     

生育政策调整对人口红利效应的影响及应对

由于计划生育国策的实行,中国在总体人口基数得到控制的同时面临人口红利消失殆尽的现状。推行二孩政策,对缓解因第一次人口红利消失而产生的社会经济矛盾意义重大,并为第二次人口红利的发展提供契机。通过对比分析二孩政策实施前后人口红利效应,对更为客观地认识政策实质,保障政策落实,进而推动人口红利的可持续发展,具有必要性和现实意义。本文运用PADISINT人口预测软件预测了中国未来一定时期的抚养比,分析了生育政策调整实施将会产生的人口红利效应。结果表明:1二孩政策的实行对"储蓄率"及"城镇化率"的提升具有促进作用;2在城市,二孩政策的人口红利效应主要通过提升劳动年龄段的人口数量体现;在农村,则主要通过推动性别比的均衡发展体现;3在城市及农村均缺乏鼓励生育二孩的配套政策;4二孩政策的生效具有滞后性;5第二次人口红利的契机难以把握。结合本文预测结果,2050年,老年抚养比高达51.45%,为使人口红利效应得到更为充分的发挥,需要进一步补充、完善现有制度,鼓励生育二孩;注重教育,特别是针对农村女孩的高等教育,提高人口"质量"以弥补"数量"缺失;合理引导老龄人群消费观、投资观、从业观的调整,逐步营造"养老"与"生育"相辅相成的可持续性社会环境。     

Energy efficiency and reduction of Co2 emissions through 2015: The Brazilian cement industry

The cement industry is characterisedby intensive energy consumption throughout itsproduction stages which, together with the calcinationof its raw materials, accounts for significant amountsof greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. In 1996, theBrazilian cement industry consumed 4.3% of the energyrequired by the industrial sector, contributing over22 Tg (Teragrams) of CO₂. The prospects forgrowth in this sector in Brazil indicate risingdemands for fossil fuels, with a consequent upsurge inemissions. This article aims to present the prospectsfor energy conservation in the Brazilian cementindustry through to 2015, taking into account: theintroduction of new production technologies in thissector, the use of waste and low-grade fuels,cogeneration, the use of cementitious materials, andother measures, based on a technical and economicenergy demand simulation model. In all scenarios, wefound that is possible to significantly reduce energyconsumption and CO₂ emissions for BrazilianCement Industry. Under the market potential scenarios,energy savings vary between 1562.0 to 1900.6 PJ(PetaJoules), with use of cementitious materialsaccounting for around 31% of this total. Fortechnical potential scenarios, use of cementitiousmaterials could represent 51% to 52% of totalachieved energy savings, between 2374.6 to 2803.4 PJ.     

On sustainability and social welfare

This paper proposes to define sustainability in terms of leaving it possible for future generations to sustain certain defined targets. It is shown that variants of genuine savings and the ecological footprint can then serve as indicators of sustainability. The link between sustainability and intergenerational welfare is examined, and it is shown how to incorporate indicators of sustainability into a social welfare measure, including risk in the analysis.     

The impact of institutional factors on the performance of genuine savings

This study investigates institutional factors affecting the performance of genuine savings (GS), which are often used in assessing sustainable development, and adopts a model of autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in mean. We pay particular attention to the contribution of institutions to decrease the volatility level of the GS path. The estimation results show that there are two ways in which institutions affect GS performance. First, high quality of institutions enhances the GS level directly. Second, high quality of institutions enhances the GS level via stabilizing the volatility of the GS path. Considering both effects in their totality, institutional improvement plays an important role in realizing a sustainable development path.     

Using revealed preferences to estimate the Value of Travel Time to recreation sites

The opportunity Value of Travel Time (VTT) is one of the most important elements of the total cost of recreation day-trips and arguably the most difficult to estimate. Most studies build upon the theoretical framework proposed by Becker (1965) by using a combination of revealed and stated preference data to estimate a value of time which is uniform in all activities and under all circumstances. This restriction is relaxed by DeSerpa's (1971) model which allows the value of saving time to be activity-specific. We present the first analysis which uses actual driving choices between open access and toll roads to estimate a VTT specific for recreation trips, thereby providing a value which conforms to both Becker's and DeSerpa's theoretical models. Using these findings we conduct a Monte Carlo simulation to identify generalizable results for subsequent valuation studies. Our results indicate that 3/4 of the wage rate provides a reasonable approximation of the average VTT for recreation trips, while the commonly implemented assumption of 1/3 of the wage rate generates downward biased results.     

真实储蓄率(GSR)——衡量生态城市的综合指标

探讨了生态城市的基本内涵,以计算苏州市1991～2001年真实储蓄率(GSR)的时间系列为案例,开发了以GSR衡量生态城市可持续发展的核心方法.对中国的6个城市进行了评估和比较,得出其年均GSR大小排序为苏州23.6%,广州18.9%,宁波14.7%,烟台13.1%,扬州11.7%,三明7.9%.GSR考虑了经济活动带来的自然资源损耗、环境污染损失和长期的环境影响,可以作为衡量生态城市的综合性指标之一.     

Material savings through structural steel reuse: A case study in Genoa

One of the most challenging issues in the field of sustainable design is that of limiting the environmental impact of structural systems, as they contribute significantly to raw material consumption, global carbon emissions and solid waste production. This paper addresses the approach of the reuse of steel structure without melting which allows for savings in steel mass and the reduction of waste amounts offering moreover an opportunity to avoid environmental burdens related to the recycling process. Recent studies have stressed the technical feasibility of this strategy, which appears particularly effective in those countries in which a building's life is rather short, such as in Japan and US, though its application encounters more difficulties in most European countries, owing to longer building use. Besides stressing the architectural and structural feasibility of the above-mentioned strategy, this research work aims to quantify the mass savings that are achievable in this manner by presenting a real case study set in Italy. It consists in a railway station, which has been designed keeping in mind the partial employment of structural elements recovered from an old industrial building that is no longer in use. To estimate the amount of steel saved, two different structural models for the designed building have been carried out and compared. In the first one, the structure has been designed on the assumption of the reusing of recovered structural elements; in the second one, the same structure has been designed considering the use of new elements only. The final result of the analysis shows that steel reuse allowed for savings of up to 30% of steel.